B lymphocyte responses in Parkinson's disease and their possible significance in disease progression.

Inflammation contributes to Parkinson's disease pathogenesis. We hypothesized that B lymphocytes are involved in Parkinson's disease progression. We measured antibodies to alpha-synuclein and tau in serum from patients with rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder (n = 79), early Parkinson's disease (n = 50) and matched controls (n = 50). Rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder cases were stratified by risk of progression to Parkinson's disease (low risk = 30, high risk = 49). We also measured B-cell activating factor of the tumour necrosis factor receptor family, C-reactive protein and total immunoglobulin G. We found elevated levels of antibodies to alpha-synuclein fibrils in rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder patients at high risk of Parkinson's disease conversion (ANOVA, P < 0.001) and lower S129D peptide-specific antibodies in those at low risk (ANOVA, P < 0.001). An early humoral response to alpha-synuclein is therefore detectable prior to the development of Parkinson's disease. Peripheral B lymphocyte phenotyping using flow cytometry in early Parkinson's disease patients and matched controls (n = 41 per group) revealed reduced B cells in Parkinson's disease, particularly in those at higher risk of developing an early dementia [t(3) = 2.87, P = 0.01]. Patients with a greater proportion of regulatory B cells had better motor scores [F(4,24) = 3.612, P = 0.019], suggesting they have a protective role in Parkinson's disease. In contrast, B cells isolated from Parkinson's disease patients at higher risk of dementia had greater cytokine (interleukin 6 and interleukin 10) responses following in vitro stimulation. We assessed peripheral blood lymphocytes in alpha-synuclein transgenic mouse models of Parkinson's disease: they also had reduced B cells, suggesting this is related to alpha-synuclein pathology. In a toxin-based mouse model of Parkinson's disease, B-cell deficiency or depletion resulted in worse pathological and behavioural outcomes, supporting the conclusion that B cells play an early protective role in dopaminergic cell loss. In conclusion, we found changes in the B-cell compartment associated with risk of disease progression in rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder (higher alpha-synuclein antibodies) and early Parkinson's disease (lower levels of B lymphocytes that were more reactive to stimulation). Regulatory B cells play a protective role in a mouse model, potentially by attenuating inflammation and dopaminergic cell loss. B cells are therefore likely to be involved in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease, albeit in a complex way, and thus warrant consideration as a therapeutic target.

B Lymphocytes in Parkinson's Disease.

It is well known that B lymphocytes differentiate into plasma cells that produce antibodies. B cells also perform a number of less well-known roles including antigen presentation, regulation of T cells and innate immune cells, cytokine production, and maintenance of subcapsular sinus macrophages. Given that there is clear evidence of inflammation in Parkinson's disease (PD) both in the central nervous system and in the periphery, it is almost certain that B lymphocytes are involved. This involvement is likely to be complicated given the variety of roles B cells play via a number of distinct subsets. They have received less attention to date than their counterparts, T cells, and monocytes. B lymphocytes are decreased in PD overall with some limited evidence that this may be driven by a decrease in regulatory subsets. There is also evidence that regulatory B cells are protective in PD. There is evidence for a role played by antibodies to alpha-synuclein in PD with a possible increase in early disease. There are many exciting potential future avenues for further exploration of the role of B lymphocytes including improving our understanding of the role of meningeal and calvarial (skull bone marrow) based B cells in health and disease, the use of larger, well phenotyped clinical cohorts to understand changes in peripheral and cerebrospinal fluid B cells over time and the potential application of B cell targeted therapies in PD.

T lymphocyte senescence is attenuated in Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: Immune involvement is well-described in Parkinson's disease (PD), including an adaptive T lymphocyte response. Given the increasing prevalence of Parkinson's disease in older age, age-related dysregulation of T lymphocytes may be relevant in this disorder, and we have previously observed changes in age-associated CD8+ T cell subsets in mid-stage PD. This study aimed to further characterise T cell immunosenescence in newly diagnosed PD patients, including shifts in CD4+ and CD8+ subpopulations, and changes in markers of cellular ageing in CD8+ T lymphocytes. METHODS: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were extracted from the blood of 61 newly diagnosed PD patients and 63 age- and sex-matched controls. Flow cytometric analysis was used for immunophenotyping of CD8+ and CD4+ lymphocyte subsets, and analysis of recent thymic emigrant cells. Telomere length within CD8+ T lymphocytes was assessed, as well as the expression of the telomerase reverse transcriptase enzyme (hTERT), and the cell-ageing markers p16INK4a and p21CIP1/Waf1. RESULTS: The number of CD8+ TEMRA T cells was found to be significantly reduced in PD patients compared to controls. The expression of p16INK4a in CD8+ lymphocytes was also lower in patients versus controls. Chronic latent CMV infection was associated with increased senescent CD8+ lymphocytes in healthy controls, but this shift was less apparent in PD patients. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our data demonstrate a reduction in CD8+ T cell replicative senescence which is present at the earliest stages of Parkinson's disease.

Differences in the Presentation and Progression of Parkinson's Disease by Sex.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reported various symptoms of Parkinson's disease (PD) associated with sex. Some were conflicting or confirmed in only one study. OBJECTIVES: We examined sex associations to PD phenotypes cross-sectionally and longitudinally in large-scale data. METHODS: We tested 40 clinical phenotypes, using longitudinal, clinic-based patient cohorts, consisting of 5946 patients, with a median follow-up of 3.1 years. For continuous outcomes, we used linear regressions at baseline to test sex-associated differences in presentation, and linear mixed-effects models to test sex-associated differences in progression. For binomial outcomes, we used logistic regression models at baseline and Cox regression models for survival analyses. We adjusted for age, disease duration, and medication use. In the secondary analyses, data from 17 719 PD patients and 7588 non-PD participants from an online-only, self-assessment PD cohort were cross-sectionally evaluated to determine whether the sex-associated differences identified in the primary analyses were consistent and unique to PD. RESULTS: Female PD patients had a higher risk of developing dyskinesia early during the follow-up period, with a slower progression in activities of daily living difficulties, and a lower risk of developing cognitive impairments compared with male patients. The findings in the longitudinal, clinic-based cohorts were mostly consistent with the results of the online-only cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We observed sex-associated contributions to PD heterogeneity. These results highlight the necessity of future research to determine the underlying mechanisms and importance of personalized clinical management. © 2020 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Peripheral innate immune and bacterial signals relate to clinical heterogeneity in Parkinson's disease.

The innate immune system is implicated in Parkinson's disease (PD), but peripheral in-vivo clinical evidence of the components and driving mechanisms involved and their relationship with clinical heterogeneity and progression to dementia remain poorly explored. We examined changes in peripheral innate immune-related markers in PD cases (n = 41) stratified according to risk of developing early dementia. 'Higher Risk'(HR) (n = 23) and 'Lower Risk' (LR) (n = 18) groups were defined according to neuropsychological predictors and MAPT H1/H2 genotype, and compared to age, gender and genotype-matched controls. Monocyte subsets and expression of key surface markers were measured using flow cytometry. Serum markers including alpha-synuclein, inflammasome-related caspase-1 and bacterial translocation-related endotoxin were measured using quantitative immuno-based assays. Specific markers were further investigated using monocyte assays and validated in plasma samples from a larger incident PD cohort (n = 95). We found that classical monocyte frequency was elevated in PD cases compared to controls, driven predominantly by the HR group, in whom Toll-Like Receptor (TLR)4+ monocytes and monocyte Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid cells-2 (TREM2) expression were also increased. Monocyte Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA)-DR expression correlated with clinical variables, with lower levels associated with worse cognitive/motor performance. Notably, monocyte changes were accompanied by elevated serum bacterial endotoxin, again predominantly in the HR group. Serum alpha-synuclein and inflammasome-related caspase-1 were decreased in PD cases compared to controls regardless of group, with decreased monocyte alpha-synuclein secretion in HR cases. Further, alpha-synuclein and caspase-1 correlated positively in serum and monocyte lysates, and in plasma from the larger cohort, though no associations were seen with baseline or 36-month longitudinal clinical data. Principal Components Analysis of all monocyte and significant serum markers indicated 3 major components. Component 1 (alpha-synuclein, caspase-1, TLR2+ monocytes) differentiated PD cases and controls in both groups, while Component 2 (endotoxin, monocyte TREM2, alpha-synuclein) did so predominantly in the HR group. Component 3 (classical monocytes, alpha-synuclein) also differentiated cases and controls overall in both groups. These findings demonstrate that systemic innate immune changes are present in PD and are greatest in those at higher risk of rapid progression to dementia. Markers associated with PD per-se (alpha-synuclein, caspase-1), differ from those related to cognitive progression and clinical heterogeneity (endotoxin, TREM2, TLR4, classical monocytes, HLA-DR), with mechanistic and therapeutic implications. Alpha-synuclein and caspase-1 are associated, suggesting inflammasome involvement common to all PD, while bacterial translocation associated changes may contribute towards progression to Parkinson's dementia. Additionally, HLA-DR-associated variations in antigen presentation/clearance may modulate existing clinical disease.

Genomewide association study of Parkinson's disease clinical biomarkers in 12 longitudinal patients' cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Several reports have identified different patterns of Parkinson's disease progression in individuals carrying missense variants in GBA or LRRK2 genes. The overall contribution of genetic factors to the severity and progression of Parkinson's disease, however, has not been well studied. OBJECTIVES: To test the association between genetic variants and the clinical features of Parkinson's disease on a genomewide scale. METHODS: We accumulated individual data from 12 longitudinal cohorts in a total of 4093 patients with 22,307 observations for a median of 3.81 years. Genomewide associations were evaluated for 25 cross-sectional and longitudinal phenotypes. Specific variants of interest, including 90 recently identified disease-risk variants, were also investigated post hoc for candidate associations with these phenotypes. RESULTS: Two variants were genomewide significant. Rs382940(T>A), within the intron of SLC44A1, was associated with reaching Hoehn and Yahr stage 3 or higher faster (hazard ratio 2.04 [1.58-2.62]; P value = 3.46E-8). Rs61863020(G>A), an intergenic variant and expression quantitative trait loci for α-2A adrenergic receptor, was associated with a lower prevalence of insomnia at baseline (odds ratio 0.63 [0.52-0.75]; P value = 4.74E-8). In the targeted analysis, we found 9 associations between known Parkinson's risk variants and more severe motor/cognitive symptoms. Also, we replicated previous reports of GBA coding variants (rs2230288: p.E365K; rs75548401: p.T408M) being associated with greater motor and cognitive decline over time, and an APOE E4 tagging variant (rs429358) being associated with greater cognitive deficits in patients. CONCLUSIONS: We identified novel genetic factors associated with heterogeneity of Parkinson's disease. The results can be used for validation or hypothesis tests regarding Parkinson's disease. © 2019 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Genetic risk of Parkinson disease and progression:: An analysis of 13 longitudinal cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if any association between previously identified alleles that confer risk for Parkinson disease and variables measuring disease progression. METHODS: We evaluated the association between 31 risk variants and variables measuring disease progression. A total of 23,423 visits by 4,307 patients of European ancestry from 13 longitudinal cohorts in Europe, North America, and Australia were analyzed. RESULTS: We confirmed the importance of GBA on phenotypes. GBA variants were associated with the development of daytime sleepiness (p.N370S: hazard ratio [HR] 3.28 [1.69-6.34]) and possible REM sleep behavior (p.T408M: odds ratio 6.48 [2.04-20.60]). We also replicated previously reported associations of GBA variants with motor/cognitive declines. The other genotype-phenotype associations include an intergenic variant near LRRK2 and the faster development of motor symptom (Hoehn and Yahr scale 3.0 HR 1.33 [1.16-1.52] for the C allele of rs76904798) and an intronic variant in PMVK and the development of wearing-off effects (HR 1.66 [1.19-2.31] for the C allele of rs114138760). Age at onset was associated with TMEM175 variant p.M393T (-0.72 [-1.21 to -0.23] in years), the C allele of rs199347 (intronic region of GPNMB, 0.70 [0.27-1.14]), and G allele of rs1106180 (intronic region of CCDC62, 0.62 [0.21-1.03]). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that alleles associated with Parkinson disease risk, in particular GBA variants, also contribute to the heterogeneity of multiple motor and nonmotor aspects. Accounting for genetic variability will be a useful factor in understanding disease course and in minimizing heterogeneity in clinical trials.

Predicting the future of ALS: the impact of demographic change and potential new treatments on the prevalence of ALS in the United Kingdom, 2020-2116.

Objective: To model the effects of demographic change under various scenarios of possible future treatment developments in ALS. Methods: Patients diagnosed with ALS at the King's College Hospital Motor Nerve Clinic between 2004 and 2017, and living within the London boroughs of Lambeth, Southwark, and Lewisham (LSL), were included as incident cases. We also ascertained incident cases from the Canterbury region over the same period. Future incidence of ALS was estimated by applying the calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates to the UK population projections from 2020 to 2116. The number of prevalent cases for each future year was estimated based on an established method. Assuming constant incidence, we modelled four possible future prevalence scenarios by altering the median disease duration for varying subsets of the population, to represent the impact of new treatments. Results: The total number of people newly diagnosed with ALS per year in the UK is projected to rise from a baseline of 1415 UK cases in 2010 to 1701 in 2020 and 2635 in 2116. Overall prevalence of ALS was predicted to increase from 8.58 per 100,000 persons in 2020 to 9.67 per 100,000 persons in 2116. Halting disease progression in patients with C9orf72 mutations would yield the greatest impact of the modelled treatment scenarios, increasing prevalence in the year 2066 from a baseline of 9.50 per 100,000 persons to 15.68 per 100,000 persons. Conclusions: Future developments in treatment would combine with the effects of demographic change to result in more people living longer with ALS.

The Peripheral Inflammatory Response to Alpha-Synuclein and Endotoxin in Parkinson's Disease.

The immune system is activated in Parkinson's Disease (PD), as evidenced by neuroinflammatory changes within the brain as well as elevated immune markers in peripheral blood. Furthermore, inflammatory cytokine levels in the blood are associated with disease severity and rate of progression. However, the factors driving this immune response in PD are not well established. We investigated cell-extrinsic factors in systemic immune activation by using α-synuclein monomers and fibrils, as well as bacterial toxins, to stimulate peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) derived from 31 patients and age/gender-matched controls. α-synuclein monomers or fibrils resulted in a robust cytokine response (as measured by supernatant cytokine concentrations and mRNA expression in cultured cells) in both PD and control PBMCs, similar to that induced by bacterial LPS. We found no PD vs. control differences in cytokine production, nor in mRNA expression. Levels of endotoxin within the recombinant α-synuclein used in these experiments were very low (0.2-1.3EU/mL), but nonetheless we found that comparable levels were sufficient to potentially confound our cytokine concentration measurements for a number of cytokines. However, α-synuclein monomers increased production of IL-1ß and IL-18 to levels significantly in excess of those induced by low-level endotoxin. In conclusion, this study: (i) highlights the importance of accounting for low-level endotoxin in antigen-PBMC stimulation experiments; (ii) indicates that cell-extrinsic factors may be a major contributor to immune activation in PD; and (iii) suggests that α-synuclein may play a role in inflammasome-related cytokine production in the periphery.

Monocyte Function in Parkinson's Disease and the Impact of Autologous Serum on Phagocytosis.

Background: Increasing evidence implicates involvement of the innate immune system in the initiation and progression of Parkinson's disease (PD). Monocytes and monocyte-derived cells perform a number of functions, such as phagocytosis, chemotaxis, and cytokine secretion, which may be particularly relevant to PD pathology. The behavior of these cells in early-moderate disease, in conditions more similar to the in-vivo environment has not been fully evaluated. Research Question: Does monocyte function, including phagocytosis, chemotaxis and cytokine secretion, differ in early-moderate PD compared to age and gender-matched controls? Methods: Participants included PD patients (n = 41) with early-moderate stage disease (Hoehn and Yahr ≤2) and age and gender matched controls (n = 41). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were isolated from whole blood and monocytes were further separated using CD14 magnetic beads. Functional assays, including bead phagocytosis (in standard medium and autologous serum), Boyden chamber trans-well chemotaxis, and cytokine secretion on lipopolysaccharide stimulation were performed. Monocyte surface markers relating to chemotaxis were measured using immunohistochemistry and flow cytometry. Between-group analysis was performed using paired t-tests. Results: An autologous serum environment significantly increased bead phagocytosis compared to standard medium as expected, in both patients and controls. When in autologous serum, PD monocytes demonstrated enhanced phagocytosis compared to control monocytes (p = 0.029). The level of serum-based phagocytosis was influenced by complement inactivation and the origin of the serum. There were no significant differences between PD and controls in terms of standard medium based monocyte migration or cytokine secretion in this cohort. Conclusions: Autologous serum has a significant influence on monocyte phagocytosis and reveals increased phagocytic capacity in early-moderate PD compared to controls. These conditions may better reflect the function of monocytes in-vivo in PD patients than standard medium based phagocytosis assays. Further studies will be required to replicate these results in larger cohorts, including earlier and later stages of disease, and to understand which serum factors are responsible for this observation and the potential mechanistic relevance to PD pathogenesis.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Alpha Synuclein Auto-Antibodies in Parkinson's Disease.

Immune dysfunction has been associated with Parkinson's disease (PD) and its progression. Antibodies play an important role in both innate and adaptive responses, acting as powerful effector molecules that can propagate inflammation by activating innate immune cells. Alpha synuclein binding antibodies have been described in PD patients with conflicting associations. In this article, we consider the potential mechanistic basis of alpha synuclein auto-antibody development and function in PD. We present a systematic review and meta-analysis of antibody studies in PD cohorts showing that there is weak evidence for an increase in alpha synuclein auto-antibodies in PD patients particularly in early disease. The confidence with which this conclusion can be drawn is limited by the heterogeneity of the clinical cohorts used, inclusion of unmatched controls, inadequate power and assay related variability. We have therefore made some recommendations for the design of future studies.

Analysis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis as a multistep process: a population-based modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis shares characteristics with some cancers, such as onset being more common in later life, progression usually being rapid, the disease affecting a particular cell type, and showing complex inheritance. We used a model originally applied to cancer epidemiology to investigate the hypothesis that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a multistep process. METHODS: We generated incidence data by age and sex from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis population registers in Ireland (registration dates 1995-2012), the Netherlands (2006-12), Italy (1995-2004), Scotland (1989-98), and England (2002-09), and calculated age and sex-adjusted incidences for each register. We regressed the log of age-specific incidence against the log of age with least squares regression. We did the analyses within each register, and also did a combined analysis, adjusting for register. FINDINGS: We identified 6274 cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from a catchment population of about 34 million people. We noted a linear relationship between log incidence and log age in all five registers: England r(2)=0·95, Ireland r(2)=0·99, Italy r(2)=0·95, the Netherlands r(2)=0·99, and Scotland r(2)=0·97; overall r(2)=0·99. All five registers gave similar estimates of the linear slope ranging from 4·5 to 5·1, with overlapping confidence intervals. The combination of all five registers gave an overall slope of 4·8 (95% CI 4·5-5·0), with similar estimates for men (4·6, 4·3-4·9) and women (5·0, 4·5-5·5). INTERPRETATION: A linear relationship between the log incidence and log age of onset of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is consistent with a multistage model of disease. The slope estimate suggests that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a six-step process. Identification of these steps could lead to preventive and therapeutic avenues. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council; UK Economic and Social Research Council; Ireland Health Research Board; The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw); the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Education, University, and Research in Italy; the Motor Neurone Disease Association of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland; and the European Commission (Seventh Framework Programme).

Evidence of an environmental effect on survival in ALS.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, motor neuron disease) is a neurodegenerative disorder of motor neurons leading to paralysis and eventual death by respiratory failure. Median survival is 2-3 years. Susceptibility genes, environmental triggers and disease related prognostic factors have been established, but environmental effects on survival are yet to be investigated. We analysed survival in the South-East England ALS register (SEALS register). Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to investigate survival in London, coastal and rural areas according to postcode at diagnosis. Results showed that there were 933 cases of ALS identified in the catchment area during the study period (1994-January 2012). Cox regression demonstrated a highly significant model for survival with significant protective variables: coastal residency, riluzole use and younger age at onset. Significantly worse survival was associated with London residency, older age as well as definite and probable El Escorial classifications. In conclusion, these findings suggest the possibility of an environmental effect on survival in ALS.

Residual association at C9orf72 suggests an alternative amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-causing hexanucleotide repeat.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease of motor neurons. Single-nucleotide polymorphism rs3849942 is associated with ALS, tagging a hexanucleotide repeat mutation in the C9orf72 gene. It is possible that there is more than 1 disease-causing genetic variation at this locus, in which case association might remain after removal of cases carrying the mutation. DNA from patients with ALS was therefore tested for the mutation. Genome-wide association testing was performed first using all samples, and then restricting the analysis to samples not carrying the mutation. rs3849942 and rs903603 were strongly associated with ALS when all samples were included (rs3849942, p = [3 × 2] × 10(-6), rank 7/442,057; rs903603, p = [7 × 6] × 10(-8), rank 2/442,057). Removal of the mutation-carrying cases resulted in loss of association for rs3849942 (p = [2 × 6] × 10(-3), rank 1225/442,068), but had little effect on rs903603 (p = [1 × 9] × 10(-5), rank 8/442,068). Those with a risk allele of rs903603 had an excess of apparent homozygosity for wild type repeat alleles, consistent with polymerase chain reaction failure of 1 allele because of massive repeat expansion. These results indicate residual association at the C9orf72 locus suggesting a second disease-causing repeat mutation.

The C9ORF72 expansion mutation is a common cause of ALS+/-FTD in Europe and has a single founder.

A massive hexanucleotide repeat expansion mutation (HREM) in C9ORF72 has recently been linked to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD). Here we describe the frequency, origin and stability of this mutation in ALS+/-FTD from five European cohorts (total n=1347). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms defining the risk haplotype in linked kindreds were genotyped in cases (n=434) and controls (n=856). Haplotypes were analysed using PLINK and aged using DMLE+. In a London clinic cohort, the HREM was the most common mutation in familial ALS+/-FTD: C9ORF72 29/112 (26%), SOD1 27/112 (24%), TARDBP 1/112 (1%) and FUS 4/112 (4%) and detected in 13/216 (6%) of unselected sporadic ALS cases but was rare in controls (3/856, 0.3%). HREM prevalence was high for familial ALS+/-FTD throughout Europe: Belgium 19/22 (86%), Sweden 30/41 (73%), the Netherlands 10/27 (37%) and Italy 4/20 (20%). The HREM did not affect the age at onset or survival of ALS patients. Haplotype analysis identified a common founder in all 137 HREM carriers that arose around 6300 years ago. The haplotype from which the HREM arose is intrinsically unstable with an increased number of repeats (average 8, compared with 2 for controls, P<10(-8)). We conclude that the HREM has a single founder and is the most common mutation in familial and sporadic ALS in Europe.

Prognostic categories for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Our objective was to generate a prognostic classification method for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) from a prognostic model built using clinical variables from a population register. We carried out a retrospective multivariate analysis of 713 patients with ALS over a 20-year period from the South-East England Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (SEALS) population register. Patients were randomly allocated to 'discovery' or 'test' cohorts. A prognostic score was calculated using the discovery cohort and then used to predict survival in the test cohort. The score was used as a predictor variable to split the test cohort in four prognostic categories (good, moderate, average, poor). The accuracy of the score in predicting survival was tested by checking whether the predicted survival fell within the actual survival tertile which that patient was in. A prognostic score generated from one cohort of patients predicted survival for a second cohort of patients (r(2) = 0.72). Six variables were included in the survival model: age at onset, diagnostic delay, El Escorial category, use of riluzole, gender and site of onset. Cox regression demonstrated a strong relationship between these variables and survival (χ(2) 80.8, df 1, p < 0.0001, n = 343) in the test cohort. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significant difference in survival between clinical categories (log rank 161.932, df 3, p < 0.001), and the prognostic score generated for the test cohort accurately predicted survival in 64% of the patients. In conclusion, it is possible to correctly classify patients into prognostic categories using clinical data easily available at time of diagnosis.

No evidence for a large difference in ALS frequency in populations of African and European origin: a population based study in inner city London.

Abstract Previous studies have suggested a lower incidence of ALS in people of African origin. We used a population based register in an urban setting from inner city London postcodes where there is a large population of people of African ancestry to compare the frequency of ALS in people of European and African origin. Population statistics stratified by age, gender and ethnicity were obtained from the 2001 census. Incidence and prevalence were calculated in each ethnic group. Results showed that in a population of 683,194, of which 22% were of African ancestry, 88 individuals with ALS were identified over a seven-year period, including 14 people with African ancestry. The adjusted incidence in people of African ancestry was 1.35 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 0.72-2.3) and in those of European ancestry 1.97 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 1.55-2.48). In conclusion, in this small population based study we could not detect a difference in rates of ALS between people of African ancestry and those of European ancestry.

A proposed staging system for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive loss of upper and lower motor neurons, with a median survival of 2-3 years. Although various phenotypic and research diagnostic classification systems exist and several prognostic models have been generated, there is no staging system. Staging criteria for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis would help to provide a universal and objective measure of disease progression with benefits for patient care, resource allocation, research classifications and clinical trial design. We therefore sought to define easily identified clinical milestones that could be shown to occur at specific points in the disease course, reflect disease progression and impact prognosis and treatment. A tertiary referral centre clinical database was analysed, consisting of 1471 patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis seen between 1993 and 2007. Milestones were defined as symptom onset (functional involvement by weakness, wasting, spasticity, dysarthria or dysphagia of one central nervous system region defined as bulbar, upper limb, lower limb or diaphragmatic), diagnosis, functional involvement of a second region, functional involvement of a third region, needing gastrostomy and non-invasive ventilation. Milestone timings were standardized as proportions of time elapsed through the disease course using information from patients who had died by dividing time to a milestone by disease duration. Milestones occurred at predictable proportions of the disease course. Diagnosis occurred at 35% through the disease course, involvement of a second region at 38%, a third region at 61%, need for gastrostomy at 77% and need for non-invasive ventilation at 80%. We therefore propose a simple staging system for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Stage 1: symptom onset (involvement of first region); Stage 2A: diagnosis; Stage 2B: involvement of second region; Stage 3: involvement of third region; Stage 4A: need for gastrostomy; and Stage 4B: need for non-invasive ventilation. Validation of this staging system will require further studies in other populations, in population registers and in other clinic databases. The standardized times to milestones may well vary between different studies and populations, although the stages themselves and their meanings are likely to remain unchanged.

The risk to relatives of patients with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a neurodegenerative disease of motor neurons with a median survival of 2 years. Most patients have no family history of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, but current understanding of such diseases suggests there should be an increased risk to relatives. Furthermore, it is a common question to be asked by patients and relatives in clinic. We therefore set out to determine the risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis to first degree relatives of patients with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis attending a specialist clinic. Case records of patients with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis seen at a tertiary referral centre over a 16-year period were reviewed, and pedigree structures extracted. All individuals who had originally presented with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, but who subsequently had an affected first degree relative, were identified. Calculations were age-adjusted using clinic population demographics. Probands (n = 1502), full siblings (n = 1622) and full offspring (n = 1545) were identified. Eight of the siblings and 18 offspring had developed amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. The unadjusted risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis over the observation period was 0.5% for siblings and 1.0% for offspring. Age information was available for 476 siblings and 824 offspring. For this subset, the crude incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis was 0.11% per year (0.05-0.21%) in siblings and 0.11% per year (0.06-0.19%) in offspring, and the clinic age-adjusted incidence rate was 0.12% per year (0.04-0.21%) in siblings. By age 85, siblings were found to have an 8-fold increased risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, in comparison to the background population. In practice, this means the risk of remaining unaffected by age 85 dropped from 99.7% to 97.6%. Relatives of people with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis have a small but definite increased risk of being affected.